World Cup Semi-final odds — who will play in match 102?

Match 102 · Semi-final · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Winner of M99 vs Winner of M100

The most likely matchups for this Semi-final, from a Monte Carlo simulation calibrated to live betting-market odds:

1. England vs Argentina — 9%
2. England vs Portugal — 4%
3. Argentina vs Brazil — 3%
4. Argentina vs France — 3%
5. Argentina vs Mexico — 2%
6. England vs Colombia — 2%
7. England vs Spain — 2%
8. Argentina vs Norway — 2%
9. Argentina vs Germany — 2%
10. England vs Switzerland — 2%
11. Portugal vs Brazil — 2%
12. Argentina vs Netherlands — 2%
13. England vs Belgium — 1%
14. Argentina vs Morocco — 1%
15. Portugal vs France — 1%
16. Portugal vs Mexico — 1%
17. England vs Egypt — 1%
18. England vs United States — 1%
19. Argentina vs Japan — 1%
20. England vs Austria — 1%