World Cup Semi-final odds — who will play in match 101?

Match 101 · Semi-final · AT&T Stadium · Winner of M97 vs Winner of M98

The most likely matchups for this Semi-final, from a Monte Carlo simulation calibrated to live betting-market odds:

1. France vs Spain — 9%
2. Spain vs Germany — 4%
3. France vs United States — 3%
4. France vs Portugal — 3%
5. Spain vs Netherlands — 3%
6. Spain vs Brazil — 3%
7. Spain vs Morocco — 2%
8. France vs Belgium — 2%
9. France vs Argentina — 2%
10. Spain vs Japan — 2%
11. Germany vs United States — 2%
12. Germany vs Portugal — 1%
13. France vs Croatia — 1%
14. Spain vs Norway — 1%
15. France vs Colombia — 1%
16. Netherlands vs United States — 1%
17. Portugal vs Netherlands — 1%
18. Brazil vs United States — 1%
19. France vs Uruguay — 1%
20. Spain vs South Korea — 1%