World Cup Round of 32 odds — who will play in match 77?

Match 77 · Round of 32 · MetLife Stadium · Winner of Group I vs 3rd place from C/D/F/G/H

The most likely matchups for this Round of 32, from a Monte Carlo simulation calibrated to live betting-market odds:

1. France vs Sweden — 19%
2. France vs Japan — 14%
3. France vs Netherlands — 10%
4. France vs Tunisia — 6%
5. Norway vs Sweden — 6%
6. Norway vs Japan — 5%
7. France vs Australia — 4%
8. France vs Türkiye — 4%
9. Norway vs Netherlands — 3%
10. France vs Paraguay — 3%
11. France vs New Zealand — 2%
12. Norway vs Tunisia — 2%
13. France vs Iran — 2%
14. France vs United States — 2%
15. France vs Egypt — 2%
16. France vs Uruguay — 1%
17. Norway vs Türkiye — 1%
18. Norway vs Australia — 1%
19. France vs Saudi Arabia — 1%
20. France vs Belgium — 1%