World Cup Round of 16 odds — who will play in match 95?

Match 95 · Round of 16 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Winner of M86 vs Winner of M88

The most likely matchups for this Round of 16, from a Monte Carlo simulation calibrated to live betting-market odds:

1. Argentina vs Australia — 11%
2. Argentina vs Egypt — 10%
3. Argentina vs Belgium — 10%
4. Argentina vs United States — 8%
5. Argentina vs Türkiye — 7%
6. Argentina vs Paraguay — 6%
7. Argentina vs Iran — 4%
8. Spain vs Egypt — 2%
9. Spain vs Australia — 2%
10. Australia vs Uruguay — 2%
11. Spain vs Belgium — 2%
12. Belgium vs Uruguay — 2%
13. Egypt vs Uruguay — 2%
14. Australia vs Austria — 2%
15. Belgium vs Austria — 2%
16. Egypt vs Austria — 2%
17. Spain vs United States — 2%
18. United States vs Uruguay — 2%
19. Spain vs Türkiye — 1%
20. United States vs Austria — 1%