World Cup Quarter-final odds — who will play in match 100?

Match 100 · Quarter-final · Arrowhead Stadium · Winner of M95 vs Winner of M96

The most likely matchups for this Quarter-final, from a Monte Carlo simulation calibrated to live betting-market odds:

1. Argentina vs Portugal — 10%
2. Argentina vs Colombia — 8%
3. Argentina vs Switzerland — 6%
4. Argentina vs Canada — 4%
5. Portugal vs Spain — 2%
6. Colombia vs Spain — 2%
7. Portugal vs Belgium — 2%
8. Portugal vs Australia — 2%
9. Argentina vs Austria — 2%
10. Argentina vs Croatia — 2%
11. Portugal vs United States — 1%
12. Argentina vs Norway — 1%
13. Portugal vs Egypt — 1%
14. Spain vs Switzerland — 1%
15. Argentina vs Ecuador — 1%
16. Argentina vs Egypt — 1%
17. Argentina vs Senegal — 1%
18. Portugal vs Uruguay — 1%
19. Colombia vs Belgium — 1%
20. Argentina vs Belgium — 1%